I enjoyed your appearance on the Value Hive podcast! Re TBLA, it is an interesting idea, perhaps hitting an inflection now and better able to scale the business. Stock looks beat up on 3-4 year chart. One concern is FCF is largely due to add back of stock-based comp expense. Has issued lots of shares to date and seems like lot more are potentially coming on to the market - looking at 20% dilution (61 m shares)?
sbc is a detractor but not uncommon for tech companies that are scaling…it is fully offset by buybacks…will be a much smaller drag on % basis each year as they grow given op leverage + increasing role of AI (not dissimilar to APP). gap between basic and fully diluted is 20% (62m shares)…regardless stock is very cheap (ie double digit FCF yield) even on fully diluted basis (which for a few reasons i think is a punative valuation lens in this case) & deducting SBC from FCF if looking out to 2026
👏🏻👏🏻
Up 4.5% on the day in obvious anticipation of this 😉
i really enjoy your substack and the activity on twitter.
I am wondering if, at one point, you could cover how you screen for stocks?
It would be super educational for folks starting their investment journey!
Thanks
i discuss some of this in my value hive podcast interview
I enjoyed your appearance on the Value Hive podcast! Re TBLA, it is an interesting idea, perhaps hitting an inflection now and better able to scale the business. Stock looks beat up on 3-4 year chart. One concern is FCF is largely due to add back of stock-based comp expense. Has issued lots of shares to date and seems like lot more are potentially coming on to the market - looking at 20% dilution (61 m shares)?
sbc is a detractor but not uncommon for tech companies that are scaling…it is fully offset by buybacks…will be a much smaller drag on % basis each year as they grow given op leverage + increasing role of AI (not dissimilar to APP). gap between basic and fully diluted is 20% (62m shares)…regardless stock is very cheap (ie double digit FCF yield) even on fully diluted basis (which for a few reasons i think is a punative valuation lens in this case) & deducting SBC from FCF if looking out to 2026
The SBC is a bit ridiculous but where are you getting the share count of 61m?
Sept 10Q - page 24.
Ta