Do you have a comps based on EBITDA multiple? I guess we need to use pre IFRS EBITDA and remove leases from liabilities to come up with the EV. I have around 5.5x currently, not dirty cheap but clearly on the cheaper side
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Hi, nice article. One concern to me is that: IWG has 3500 locations, but now they intend to sign 1000 per year, and that plan sounds quite ambitous. I watched CEO Mark's interview, and he said this business would be a very operational driven one, but here IWG would expand nearly 30% new locations per year, I wonder if their operations capability would catch up?
you should model IWG on rooms (ie space) not locations (which vary by size). in H1 their new room signings was +25% vs 2023 run rate (which is what i had plugged into my model). Open rooms I have growing about 10% year....which is actually banging in line with their growth rate pre pandemic, only difference its done capital light
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I am an IWG investor and this is the best thesis I have seen so far. I really hope you can share more with the community because I really like the precision approach to every single point.
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Very nice summary of the story! Did management specifically promise buybacks at the investor day? (I've seen all the investor day presentations but haven't been able to locate a transcript). In all the other transcripts I've gone through I've seen talk of "a progressive dividend policy going forward" and vague promises to share the benefits of growth between equity and debt holders after reaching their 1x leverage target. As you rightly note aggressive buybacks would really juice the returns here in 2025+.
they've made it clear shareholder returns kick in once leverage hits 1x...the balance between dividends vs buybacks (or further deleveraging) hasnt been clarified though...given that they are positioning themselves as the Marriott/Hilton of offices, who prioritise buybacks > dividends, are making a push to market themselves to global/US investors (who prefer buybacks > dividends)...plus the stock is incredibly cheap (so buybacks super accretive) + buybacks are more tax efficient - everything points a skew towards buybacks. Given they cut the dividend during covid they dont have UK income funds on the register pushing for dividends.
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One of the problems is "overpromising and under-delivering", so market says show me the numbers. And nobody can rule out a hard reccession with rates hikes kicking in with laggard effects and contagion. So if they starting REALLY with buybacks it´s maybe a good signal. I like the thesis, i would make it a big position, if they had a solid balance sheet with net cash war chest.
Nothing in life can be ruled out....but its always about judging likelihood of outcomes in a risk vs reward framework. Hard recessions are followed by recoveries, and it probably gets you to the same end point i laid out in my "no growth macro" scenario. Personally think that 1x leverage is more than conservative given the model shift to cap light. Completely agree re overpromising point....its a process / takes time to build credibility - which they have made progress on over the last 12 months....and buybacks as you said probably are the catalyst for the market to take note.
Alright attention needed to all my subscribers out there!! Today I'll be 1ntroducing you all to a Life changing investment that will help you financially. Wow it's very lucra-tive. You can เηνεςt more if you're capable because it's 100% safe and trusted.
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Do you have a comps based on EBITDA multiple? I guess we need to use pre IFRS EBITDA and remove leases from liabilities to come up with the EV. I have around 5.5x currently, not dirty cheap but clearly on the cheaper side
Alright attention needed to all my subscribers out there!! Today I'll be 1ntroducing you all to a Life changing investment that will help you financially. Wow it's very lucra-tive. You can เηνεςt more if you're capable because it's 100% safe and trusted.
WRITE to Mr Taylor Nelson for guidance on how it works. You can actually reah-out 山ith him HIT on
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good article, many thanks
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Is there enough demand in the market to sign that many franchise/managed locations per year?
seems so...managed / franchised signings in H1 were +25% vs the 2023 run rate...i just posted an updated post H1 results which covers this.
Alright attention needed to all my subscribers out there!! Today I'll be 1ntroducing you all to a Life changing investment that will help you financially. Wow it's very lucra-tive. You can เηνεςt more if you're capable because it's 100% safe and trusted.
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Hi, nice article. One concern to me is that: IWG has 3500 locations, but now they intend to sign 1000 per year, and that plan sounds quite ambitous. I watched CEO Mark's interview, and he said this business would be a very operational driven one, but here IWG would expand nearly 30% new locations per year, I wonder if their operations capability would catch up?
you should model IWG on rooms (ie space) not locations (which vary by size). in H1 their new room signings was +25% vs 2023 run rate (which is what i had plugged into my model). Open rooms I have growing about 10% year....which is actually banging in line with their growth rate pre pandemic, only difference its done capital light
Alright attention needed to all my subscribers out there!! Today I'll be 1ntroducing you all to a Life changing investment that will help you financially. Wow it's very lucra-tive. You can เηνεςt more if you're capable because it's 100% safe and trusted.
WRITE to Mr Taylor Nelson for guidance on how it works. You can actually reah-out 山ith him HIT on
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Hello there,
I am an IWG investor and this is the best thesis I have seen so far. I really hope you can share more with the community because I really like the precision approach to every single point.
I wish you the best investing,
Alberto.
thanks alberto, appreciate the kind words.
Alright attention needed to all my subscribers out there!! Today I'll be 1ntroducing you all to a Life changing investment that will help you financially. Wow it's very lucra-tive. You can เηνεςt more if you're capable because it's 100% safe and trusted.
WRITE to Mr Taylor Nelson for guidance on how it works. You can actually reah-out 山ith him HIT on
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<<<+> ±1 585-623-0133..
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Very nice summary of the story! Did management specifically promise buybacks at the investor day? (I've seen all the investor day presentations but haven't been able to locate a transcript). In all the other transcripts I've gone through I've seen talk of "a progressive dividend policy going forward" and vague promises to share the benefits of growth between equity and debt holders after reaching their 1x leverage target. As you rightly note aggressive buybacks would really juice the returns here in 2025+.
they've made it clear shareholder returns kick in once leverage hits 1x...the balance between dividends vs buybacks (or further deleveraging) hasnt been clarified though...given that they are positioning themselves as the Marriott/Hilton of offices, who prioritise buybacks > dividends, are making a push to market themselves to global/US investors (who prefer buybacks > dividends)...plus the stock is incredibly cheap (so buybacks super accretive) + buybacks are more tax efficient - everything points a skew towards buybacks. Given they cut the dividend during covid they dont have UK income funds on the register pushing for dividends.
Thanks for the response. That's a good point on the UK income funds; let's hope they press hard on the buyback.
Alright attention needed to all my subscribers out there!! Today I'll be 1ntroducing you all to a Life changing investment that will help you financially. Wow it's very lucra-tive. You can เηνεςt more if you're capable because it's 100% safe and trusted.
WRITE to Mr Taylor Nelson for guidance on how it works. You can actually reah-out 山ith him HIT on
Whatsap📥
<<<+> ±1 585-623-0133..
It's truly PROFITABLE & TELL HIM I sent you so he can attend to you.
One of the problems is "overpromising and under-delivering", so market says show me the numbers. And nobody can rule out a hard reccession with rates hikes kicking in with laggard effects and contagion. So if they starting REALLY with buybacks it´s maybe a good signal. I like the thesis, i would make it a big position, if they had a solid balance sheet with net cash war chest.
Nothing in life can be ruled out....but its always about judging likelihood of outcomes in a risk vs reward framework. Hard recessions are followed by recoveries, and it probably gets you to the same end point i laid out in my "no growth macro" scenario. Personally think that 1x leverage is more than conservative given the model shift to cap light. Completely agree re overpromising point....its a process / takes time to build credibility - which they have made progress on over the last 12 months....and buybacks as you said probably are the catalyst for the market to take note.
Alright attention needed to all my subscribers out there!! Today I'll be 1ntroducing you all to a Life changing investment that will help you financially. Wow it's very lucra-tive. You can เηνεςt more if you're capable because it's 100% safe and trusted.
WRITE to Mr Taylor Nelson for guidance on how it works. You can actually reah-out 山ith him HIT on
Whatsap📥
<<<+> ±1 585-623-0133..
It's truly PROFITABLE & TELL HIM I sent you so he can attend to you.